The Pickens Plan

As you've probably seen on TV, the Pickens Plan is getting alot of press, due in large part to T. Boone Pickens supporting and promoting it with his own money. Let me explore the Pickens plan for you.

The plan is fairly simple in scope, but much more complicated in application. The plan is to build massive amounts of new wind power, up to 20% or more of current consumption, then use that to stop using natural gas for generating power for the most part, then use the natural gas to power cars.

I am a natural cynic at heart, my tendency is to disbelieve things at the outset, especially things championed by old rich white guys who own oil. But I do see some light in the Pickens plan. If the first phase (the wind turbines) goes off well, we will all be in a better place environmentally, and for reasons of health. Anything that can displace burning of fuels to make energy is a success. However, when it comes to the natural gas aspect of the plan, I am not so optimistic. True, NG is at a great price now, but start feeding millions of cars with it and prices change. It will likely become as volitile as gas prices. Additionally, NG is still a burnable fuel, it is not without its own pollution, and NG is a limited resource just like all the rest of the fossil fuels. It does bring us closer to renewability because biogas can be substituted in, but I don't think it's the real big idea for the future.

For instance, I believe the Tesla Motors guys said that if you burn natural gas in a power plant (which is much more efficient than a car) and use the resulting electricity to power an electric car, you can go something like twice as far. Now I'm not sure if that's accurate, but it's something to think about. I do think CNG has a place in future energy infrastructure, but not a big one. I think CNG hybrids are a possibility for longer trips that BEV's can't do, but I don't think it's a fuel for everyone. Additionally, Amory Lovins points out that the problem today is not a fuel issue, it's a car design issue. Our cars are massively inefficent, not including the engine. His Hypercar is made of carbon composites, is aerodynamically efficient, and is super light and insulated. All this without a fundamental change in propulsion, though he believes one is needed. Toyota has just contracted a company to make carbon fiber parts for them, so we'll see where that goes. One of thier recent concepts is called the 1/X, and with the same interior space as a Prius, weighs 1/3, uses 1/2 the fuel or better, with an engine 1/4 the size.

I think CNG would be useful for tractor trailer rigs. With a hybrid setup and a CNG generator on board, I think stuff could happen there. A truck is not lacking of space, just look under the thing, but weight issues are the key, and trucks are vitally necessary to our society, so there needs to be a solution there.

Overall, I don't like solution that leaves our energy sources to "oil men." Sure the fuel is different, but it's in the hands of the same people. I still like electricity primarily because I can make it myself. And I don't need solar panels to do it, I can make all sorts of apparatus out of all sorts of pieces and parts, it's quite straightforward. And if I want to get all Lance Armstrong, I can make a power generator substantial enough to watch TV as long as I want as long as I keep pedaling. Of course the bigger the TV, the harder I'll have to pedal.

Overall, the Pickens plan is a good start, and I think it has a good goal, but we don't need any more stopgap measures, the solutions are here. We do need that much wind power though, that is for sure. We need a fundamental change in the way we do things, cars especially, ask Amory.


We need to have great cars, and we also need to drive them less. - Amory Lovins
WiredForStereo

Dr. Gasoline, or: How Learned How to Stop Worrying and Love the Go-Juice.

Once again, necessity has me opening my fat yap to complain about something.

Actually, I am not complaining, I welcome higher gas prices, they prove I am right. Go ahead, look at some of my older posts, you'll find a number of references to higher gas prices, and the reason therefore.

Higher gas prices necessitate action, hopefully, it will get people to stop buying Escalades and Tahoes, and Sequoias. Get ahold of a Corolla, and Echo, maybe a Prius. I ride a motorcycle that currently gets around 47 mpg. My wife drives a Corolla that gets around 34. We've decided that with the children situation, our next car will be a Toyota Sienna Hybrid (or whatever they'll call it by then.)

As you may be able to tell, I like Toyotas. They are the kings in the hybrid biz, and they have been building very reliable cars for a long time. In fact, the most populous car in history is a Toyota, the Corolla. Toyota has most of the factory produced electric vehicles on the road, the RAV4 EV, though there are very few of them. Plus, they have some great plans for hybrids in the future. They plan to offer every one of their vehicles in hybrid form, and there are several much higher mileage machines in the works. The 3rd generation Prii are supposed to make 30% better mileage than the current ones, and there is some talk of nearing the 100 miles per gallon mark.

Anyway, the sustainable option would of course be a flex fuel type hybrid, or better, a biodiesel model, and best, an all electric car. Hopefully with the current state of things, those options will be nearer on the horizon.

Mark my words, gas will go up even more.
WiredForStereo

WORLD series: Gas Mileage

A huge problem in this country (even the prez thinks so) is our reliance on foreign oil. You see, whilst people argue about the existence of peak oil in this day and time, the fact remains that peak oil already happened in the US in 1972. That's right, THIRTY FIVE FREAKING YEARS AGO!!!!! Thus, since then, we have been buying ever increasing amounts of oil from foriegn countries whilst our own supply continues to decline.

What's wrong with this picture?

You see, back in the 60's (and a number of other years also) there was this guy named Hubbert. Hubbert made this nifty (prophetic) prediction that US oil would peak around 1970. He also predicted that world oil would peak around 2000. Can the man tell 'em or what?

As you can see in the graph on the right, most of the world's oil supplies peaked in the mid nineties with the total world supply fighting like heck not to peak right now. Some estimated it peaked back in the latter part of 2005 and is just hovering at the same production levels right now. What does this mean? It means that like Natural Gas, we are continuing to use a resource at an ever increasing level, while the resource itself is in ever decreasing supply. And that means: HIGHER PRICES.

So, what would I as the Supreme Leader of the United States of America do about this problem? (I know I will get tore several new ones for this) we must stop driving extremely wasteful vehicles. I would (effective in one year as usual) outlaw passenger vehicles that get less than 25 miles per gallon gasoline and 30 mpg diesel based on actual driving conditions. Individuals and companies wishing to obtain or to continue using large pickups and SUV's would file for a permit based on actual necessity of use. Motorcycles could not get less than 40 mpg.

Additionally, all internal combustion engine vehicles would be required to use only fully synthetic motor oils, gear oils, and greases. This would save gas mileage and allow cars to remain in service for a longer period of time while the economy adjusts to the severe shock.

As a result of all this, I believe that the gas prices would fall in short order, once supply ballooned above demand. However once my new emissions restrictions on oil wells and refining plants took effect, those prices could come back up a bit.

I would also (with props to the ZEV mandate of CARB) require all car companies to be selling 10% of thier total vehicles as electric vehicles in 5 years with 50% in 10 years (tractor trailers excluded, though they'd be required to come up with some hybrids that increased mileage by 20%.) I'd mandate that the company that owns the patents to the large format NiMH (here unamed) to allow it's use in fully electric vehicles with only a nominal fee.

I know these are some radical ideas, and even I cringe when I read what I've read, but this is a quick progression toward a sustainable society, and burning oil is not sustainable. Therefore, we must include greater numbers of fuel sources so that the sudden absence of one does not greatly affect the others. For instance, if we could simultaneously raise and lower the utilization of biodiesel and diesel fuel respectively till the 50/50 level is reached, then a healthy drop in the supply of either will be tempered by the other. This is the same reason electricity prices rise slower than fuels. There are myriad sources of electricity, but very few of fuels.

Wow, that hurt.
WiredForStereo

Next: Electricity reform.